It’s finally upon us. Radio City Music Hall is the site where 32 young men will hear their names called and join new teams; 30 of them will be in attendance to give Roger Goodell that awkward man hug.
Who will prove to be values and who will be busts?
This final mock will look at the picks and then give a bust factor of high, low or moderate showing how likely the player is to fail at the next level.
There is no scientific method to determine busts or teams would hit on all their picks. with that said let’s see how the final board plays out!
Round 1
1) Houston Texans- Jadaveon Clowney DE- South Carolina
No change here. Best overall player/prospect in the draft will go first.
Bust factor: Low
2) St. Louis Rams (from Washington)- Greg Robinson OT- Auburn
Robinson fills a need on two fronts. He fills a LT position that was part of a weak O line last year, and also keeps franchise QB Sam Bradford healthy.
Bust factor: Low
3) Jacksonville Jaguars- Sammy Watkins WR- Clemson
The safest pick at this point in the draft, also the most dynamic. This offense is going to struggle to score points. Watkins will help with even average QB play from Chad Henne.
Bust factor: Low
4) Cleveland Browns- Khalil Mack OLB- Buffalo
Mack would team with Karlos Dansby on the inside as former 1st rounder Jabal Sheard and Paul Kruger rush the passer. He’s the best prospect on the board at this point but it’s a quarterback driven league, and for that reason we could hear Johnny Manziel’s name called here.
Bust Factor: Moderate. Was a big fish in small pond at University at Buffalo could be a small fish in big pond in NFL.
5) Oakland Raiders- Taylor Lewan OT- Michigan
Lewan could have been the first overall pick in last year’s draft but decided not to declare. The Raiders need talent in virtually every position which makes them taking a QB a longshot in this spot.
Bust factor: High. He has an outstanding arrest to be settled which could be an indicator of his ‘nasty streak’ or that he’s a bad character guy. GM Reggie McKenzie will have to decide which it is.
6) Atlanta Falcons- Jake Matthews OT- Texas A&M
Matt Ryan will love this pick. With no impact pass rusher available at this spot Ryan gets the body guard he needs.
Bust factor: Moderate. He could be a Pro Bowl guard for 10 years but will get a shot to play tackle first.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Mike Evans WR- Texas A&M
Same as last mock. The value and need continue to match up well. If one of the OT falls to this spot don’t be surprised if they take them instead as Lovie Smith wants to establish a run game and ride it this season in Tampa.
Bust factor: High. He has the athletic ability but there are questions about his drive to be great and attitude.
8) Minnesota Vikings- Blake Bortles QB- Central Florida
They need a long term solution at the position. Bortles could learn for half the year behind Matt Cassel and step in when ready, or when the Vikings are eliminated from playoff contention. There are other needs on the roster and a trade back isn’t out of the question as GM Rick Spielman has moved in recent 1st rounds.
Bust factor: High: There will be pressure on Bortles to play early and if he doesn’t, or even worse starts from day one and struggles, the move will be lambasted by fans and set the franchise back another three years.
9) Buffalo Bills- Eric Ebron TE- North Carolina
No change in this mock as the Bills have to be hoping that both Cleveland and Minnesota take QB’s so they have their choice of an OT or Ebron. A wildcard here would be Mike Evans if Tampa takes a tackle; the Bills would run to the podium.
Bust factor: Moderate. He could be a Pro Bowler or only a slight upgrade over incumbent Scott Chandler.
10) Detroit Lions- Ha Ha Clinton-Dix S- Alabama
No change here either with Clinton-Dix playing centerfield.
Bust factor: Moderate. Can be fooled by elite QB and double moves.
11) Tennessee Titans- Darqueze Dennard CB- Michigan State
The team needs to replace CB Alterraun Verner. Dennard makes sense here in terms of need and value.
Bust factor: Low.
12) New York Giants- Aaron Donald DT- Pittsburgh
Losing Justin Tuck in free agency leaves the door open for an infusion of youth and talent, which Donald would provide.
Bust factor: Moderate. 3 technique guys aren’t overpowering and can thus be engulfed by bigger/stronger O linemen.
13) St. Louis Rams- Justin Gilbert CB- Oklahoma State
The Rams let Cortland Finnegan go this off season and pairing Gilbert with Janoris Jenkins would put the Rams young defense on notice as one of the best in the league.
Bust factor: Low
14) Chicago Bears- Calvin Pryor S- Louisville
Pryor is a thumper and more an in the box safety who helps in run support, which with the loss of some line depth could be a concern as teams try to bleed the clock to keep the Bears high powered offense off the field.
Bust factor: Moderate. Current Bears safeties aren’t very good so this could be addition by subtraction.
15) Pittsburgh Steelers- Zach Martin OT- Notre Dame
The Steelers tried to address the O line two years ago but Mike Adams just can’t play; they have been patching together lines since dodging injuries and ineffectiveness. Martin helps solidify the line and his experience will cure any learning curve to the pro game. D line is also a consideration here.
Bust factor: Low.
16) Dallas Cowboys- Anthony Barr OLB- UCLA
With the loss of Demarcus Ware the Cowboys need help on the outside, or anyone really who can rush the passer. Barr was considered a top 10 pick when the evaluation process began and has the skill set to do so at the next level.
Bust factor: Moderate. Questionable measurables and dedication to craft could derail him.
17) Baltimore Ravens- C.J. Mosley ILB- Alabama
The Ravens would be getting a great value in Mosley here and he would stabilize the defense the way Ray Lewis did when he was drafted. The offensive line is also a concern, but with no real value at this point Ozzie Newsome will take the best player available.
Bust factor: Moderate. Injuries are the only concern.
18) New York Jets- Odell Beckham Jr. WR- LSU
The Jets should be looking to draft the best offensive playmaker available. With Geno Smith or Mike Vick starting this team will need a possession/slot receiver more than a downfield threat and since they have Stephen Hill on the roster already, Beckham Jr. fits that.
Bust factor: Moderate. Receivers usually take two years to learn route trees and mature to the NFL game.
19) Miami Dolphins- Morgan Moses OT- Virginia
There isn’t a lot of hype around Moses right now but you can bet that the Dolphins and their offensive coaching staff have poured over every linemen’s tape in this draft knowing they need two and maybe three starters. Moses can step in and play RT and help keep Ryan Tanneyhill clean.
Bust factor: High. The Dolphins need him to be, but if he isn’t ready to start right away he could be moved to guard where someone his size isn’t a natural fit.
20) Arizona Cardinals- Johnny Manziel QB- Texas A&M
Derek Carr is a more polished player and personality but Manziel would bring hype and excitement to a franchise that doesn’t generally create that. Larry Fitzgerald would love this pick as he would no doubt enjoy a statistical boost if Johnny football went under center.
Bust factor: High. A first round QB will have expectations, but if he is taken here he could sit half the year and learn from veteran Carson Palmer. Bruce Arians and his offensive staff will have no trouble tailoring an offense to suit Manziel’s strengths.
21) Green Bay Packers- Ryan Shazier OLB- Ohio State
The Green Bay defense finished 24th and 25th in pass and rush yards against last season. Shazier would fit in the Pack’s system and benefit from playing across from Clay Matthews to improve on those numbers.
Bust factor: High. Shazier isn’t a dominant athlete and if he was to play outside in a 3-4 would need to add some weight.
22) Philadelphia Eagles- Kelvin Benjamin WR- Florida State
A big physical pass catcher who when Newton improvises is able to win a jump ball situation. A true Red Zone nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators.
Bust factor: Moderate. A big framed receiver joining Chip Kelly’s offense? As long as his hands are solid he will pay instant dividends in goal line and jump ball situations.
23) Kansas City Chiefs- Marquise Lee WR- USC
Lee is an excellent athlete who needs to be more consistent with his catching the ball, but is a home run threat who will make Dexter McCluster expendable. The Chiefs offense needs more spark than Jamaal Charles, and Dwayne Bowe proved to not be a factor last year.
Bust factor: Moderate. A wide receiver without solid hands is a concern.
24) Cincinnati Bengals- Kony Ealy DE- Missouri
The team lost Michael Johnson in free agency this off season and has nothing on the roster to replace him with. There aren’t many other holes on this roster; with improved consistency from QB Andy Dalton this team might win a playoff game this season.
Bust factor: Moderate. Slight reach in talent for this spot and could be forced into lineup even if he isn’t ready.
25) San Diego Chargers- Jason Verrett CB- TCU
The defense ranked 29th against the pass last season and clearly needs an infusion of talent in the backfield aside from FS Eric Weddle. Already a playoff team last year shoring up a weaker D while Phillip Rivers is still in his prime would ensure that the team fights for another trip to the post season.
Bust factor: Moderate. Not the biggest corner to compete with Denver’s WR corps.
26) Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis)- Bradley Roby CB- Ohio State
New head coach Mike Pettine is a defensively oriented coach and will look to plug leaks on D before addressing the QB position early in round two. Roby is a talent upgrade from Buster Skrine as the #2 corner behind Joe Haden.
Bust factor: High. Off the field arrest two weeks before draft is a red flag for GM’s
27) New Orleans Saints- Brandin Cooks WR- Oregon State
The Saints would be thrilled if Cooks were to fall to them giving Drew Brees a speed threat to match up with Marques Colston’s possession skills. The trading of Darren Sproles opens up a set of plays for the speedy Cooks.
Bust factor: Moderate. Even with Drew Brees throwing him the ball sometimes speed guys have trouble running routes and recognizing defenses.
28) Carolina Panthers- Cody Latimer WR- Indiana
The team needs bodies and talent at both wide out spots. Latimer is a good start and don’t be surprised if Carolina takes two or three WR by the end of the draft.
Bust factor: Moderate. Virginia Tech isn’t exactly a pro style of offense.
29) New England Patriots- Louis Nix III DT- Notre Dame
Nix would be ideal here for the Pats as Vince Wilfork is coming off a knee injury and some uncertainty around his contract situation. He could learn for a year while rotating in to spell Wilfork and would anchor the line just as big Vince has for the last several years.
Bust factor: High. He could eat himself out of the league, also questions about his motivation.
30) San Francisco 49ers- Kyle Fuller CB- Virginia State
The 49ers have the picks to move up and take whoever they want but if they stay put the impact WR’s are off the board and could instead chose to shore up the defensive backfield.
Bust factor: Low. Solid player joining a solid defense.
31) Denver Broncos- Timmy Jernigan DT- Florida State
The Super Bowl left a sour taste in their mouths for a variety of reasons. Offensive line could be a consideration here also but the defensive trench was be felled by injuries last year. Jernigan can get after the QB and develop into a three down player.
Bust factor: Low. Jernigan will help in a rotation along the line to keep run stuffers fresh and apply some pressure on the offensive backfield.
32) Seattle Seahawks- Ra’Shede Hageman DT- Minnesota
The Seahawks lost some depth along the D line in free agency so this pick should help replenish that depth. They could use help along the offensive line as well as they lost their RT in free agency but at this point there is no value to be had.
Bust factor: Low. Not a lot of pressure on the final pick of the first round going to the Super Bowl champions.
